Probabilistic Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Distance from HKIA

To facilitate the interpretation of probabilistic wind forecast for the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) which is available on the AMIDS when tropical cyclone warning signal is in force in Hong Kong, a new probabilistic forecast of tropical cyclone distance from HKIA was developed.  The new product, with forecasts up to 36 hours ahead, will be updated twice a day at around 21 UTC and 09 UTC.  It will be displayed side-by-side with the probabilistic wind forecasts.  Together with the strike probability map, users may better understand the source of the spread in the probabilistic wind and crosswind forecasts.  These probabilistic forecast products will be useful for flight planning and risk assessments in tropical cyclone situations.

Figure 1  A sample probabilistic forecast of tropical cyclone distance from HKIA (upper) displayed alongside with probabilistic forecast of winds for HKIA (lower)