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Tropical Cyclones in 2021 > Table 4.12

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2021

Table 4.12    Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2021

Name of tropical cyclone
Code
Max
Intensity
24-hour forecast position
48-hour forecast position
72-hour forecast position
96-hour forecast position
120-hour forecast position
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Dujuan 2101 T.S. 157 11 301 7 421 6 369 2 - -
Surigae 2102 SuperT. 42 42 67 38 86 34 84 30 119 26
Choi-wan 2103 T.S. 125 17 281 9 392 7 371 5 314 1
Koguma 2104 T.S. 71 5 150 1 - - - - - -
Champi 2105 T. 101 8 216 5 102 1 - - - -
In-fa 2106 T. 53 48 102 44 186 40 278 34 381 30
Cempaka 2107 T. 48 20 64 9 197 9 390 6 572 4
Lupit 2109 T.S. 114 22 243 17 454 15 565 11 320 7
Mirinae 2110 S.T.S. 118 11 108 9 164 4 202 1 - -
Omais 2112 T.S. 85 8 72 4 - - - - - -
Conson 2113 S.T.S. 117 22 204 18 313 14 360 10 400 6
Chanthu 2114 SuperT. 93 44 162 39 226 34 261 30 309 26
Dianmu 2115 T.S. 70 4 - - - - - - - -
Mindulle 2116 SuperT. 59 26 76 22 106 18 112 14 96 10
Lionrock 2117 T.S. 41 10 59 6 91 2 - - - -
Kompasu 2118 T. 70 22 65 18 102 14 156 10 189 6
Malou 2120 T. 54 15 85 13 132 9 278 5 521 1
Nyatoh 2121 SuperT. 55 12 78 8 219 4 - - - -
Rai 2122 SuperT. 56 25 82 21 133 17 197 13 275 9
T.D.
(5 - 6 Jul) 		- T.D. 174 1 - - - - - - - -
T.D.
(5 - 8 Jul) 		- T.D. 53 6 48 3 - - - - - -
T.D.
(24 - 27 Oct) 		- T.D. 76 9 57 5 - - - - - -
Average Error 75 121 197 245 277
Average Error 388 296 228 171 126

Note:
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.