Global Climate Projections - Temperature

Global Climate Projections

Temperature

Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered in IPCC AR6. Global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.

Compared to 1850–1900, the global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0-1.8℃, 2.1-3.5℃ and 3.3-5.7℃ under the very low (SSP1-1.9), intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios respectively.

Global surface temperature change relative to 1850–1900

Global surface temperature change relative to 1850–1900. The black curve shows historical simulation (multi-model annual average). Coloured curves show projections (multi-model 20-year average) under different emissions scenarios. Very likely ranges of SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios are shown by coloured shading. (Image credit: IPCC AR6)

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Image credit:

Figure SPM.8 Panel a) from IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson- Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.