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Mean sea level projection data for Hong Kong

Mean sea level projection data for Hong Kong

5 emissions scenarios

low confidence scenarios

The following table shows projected changes in annual mean sea level in Hong Kong (reference location: Quarry Bay) relative to the average of 1995-2014 under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Average annual mean sea level at Quarry Bay during 1995-2014 is 1.45 m above Hong Kong Chart Datum. The probability for the likely range to cover the outcome is at least 66%.

Very low
SSP1-1.9		 Low
SSP1-2.6		 Intermediate
SSP2-4.5		 High
SSP3-7.0		 Very high
SSP5-8.5
Median (m) Likely range (m) Median
(m)		 Likely range
(m)		 Median
(m)		 Likely range
(m)		 Median
(m)		 Likely range
(m)		 Median
(m)		 Likely range
(m)
2030 0.09 0.05-0.14 0.09 0.05-0.13 0.09 0.05-0.13 0.09 0.05-0.13 0.09 0.06-0.14
2040 0.13 0.08-0.20 0.13 0.08-0.19 0.14 0.08-0.20 0.14 0.08-0.20 0.15 0.10-0.22
2050 0.18 0.11-0.27 0.19 0.12-0.27 0.20 0.13-0.28 0.20 0.13-0.29 0.23 0.16-0.32
2060 0.22 0.13-0.33 0.23 0.14-0.34 0.26 0.17-0.37 0.27 0.18-0.38 0.30 0.21-0.42
2070 0.26 0.15-0.40 0.29 0.18-0.42 0.32 0.21-0.47 0.35 0.24-0.50 0.40 0.29-0.55
2080 0.30 0.17-0.47 0.34 0.21-0.50 0.39 0.26-0.57 0.45 0.31-0.63 0.51 0.37-0.71
2090 0.34 0.19-0.53 0.38 0.23-0.58 0.47 0.31-0.68 0.55 0.39-0.78 0.64 0.47-0.88
2100 0.38 0.18-0.61 0.42 0.24-0.66 0.56 0.37-0.82 0.68 0.47-0.95 0.78 0.57-1.08
2110 0.43 0.20-0.70 0.49 0.26-0.77 0.64 0.40-0.95 0.76 0.50-1.09 0.88 0.60-1.27
2120 0.47 0.22-0.76 0.54 0.28-0.85 0.72 0.45-1.07 0.88 0.58-1.26 1.01 0.69-1.46
2130 0.50 0.23-0.83 0.58 0.30-0.93 0.79 0.50-1.18 0.99 0.66-1.42 1.13 0.77-1.64
2140 0.54 0.24-0.90 0.63 0.32-1.01 0.87 0.54-1.30 1.10 0.73-1.58 1.25 0.85-1.82
2150 0.57 0.25-0.96 0.67 0.33-1.08 0.94 0.58-1.41 1.21 0.80-1.74 1.36 0.92-1.99

Data source: IPCC AR6


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Data source:

  1. Fox-Kemper, B., H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R. E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, A. B. A. Slangen, Y. Yu, 2021, Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In press.
  2. Garner, G. G., R. E. Kopp, T. Hermans, A. B. A. Slangen, G. Koubbe, M. Turilli, S. Jha, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, in prep. Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS). Geoscientific Model Development.
  3. Garner, G. G., T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R. E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections. Version 20210809. PO.DAAC, CA, USA. Dataset accessed [2021-08-24] at https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/announcements/2021-08-09-Sea-level-projections-from-the-IPCC-6th-Assessment-Report.
  4. We thank the projection authors for developing and making the sea-level rise projections available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the NASA Sea-Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Projection Tool.