Seasonal Forecast

Seasonal Forecast for November 2024-January 2025

Hong Kong is expecting:

1.	normal to above-normal temperature
2.	normal to below-normal rainfall

Assessment (as of 31 October 2024):

In the past month or so, sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were near normal on the whole. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue for the rest of this year. The sea surface temperatures of the region are likely to be normal to below normal for the rest of this autumn and winter 2024/25, with a possibility of transitioning to La Niña conditions in the coming winter.
Against the backdrop of climate warming, November-January temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The chance of normal to above-normal temperature is generally higher. Besides, the majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for November 2024-January 2025. Hence, the temperature of November 2024-January 2025 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal.
The majority of climate models around the world forecast less moisture transport to the coast of southern China in November 2024-January 2025, the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in Hong Kong for November 2024-January 2025 is expected to be higher.

Note:

Climate prediction centres around the world generate seasonal forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. Predictions from different centres do not always agree and large discrepancies can occur at times. To formulate seasonal forecasts for Hong Kong, the Observaory takes into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres, past performance of climate models, and impacts of El Niño/La Niña, etc.
The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast for Hong Kong.
Seasonal Forecast for winter 2024/25 (December 2024-February 2025) will be available around 1st December 2024.

Seasonal forecast charts provided by major climate centres:

For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)