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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for February 2026


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 normal to above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to below-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. Dry continental airstream is expected to prevail over the coastal areas of southern China for most of the time in February 2026. The temperatures over the region are expected to be normal to above-normal, and the rainfall will be normal to below-normal in the month.

Assessment (as of 29 January 2026):
  1. In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rose slightly and became near normal on the whole in December 2025. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to be normal to below-normal for the rest of January 2026. With the region warming up gradually, the sea surface temperatures of the region are forecast to remain near normal for the rest of this winter and spring 2026.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of February 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for March 2026 will be available around 1st March 2026.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)