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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for August 2026


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 normal to above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to above-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. Broad troughs of low pressure are expected to linger over the central and northern parts of the South China Sea in August 2026, favourable for the development of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea and seas near the Philippines.
  2. The chance of tropical cyclone occurrence over the South China Sea is expected to be higher during the middle and latter part of August.

Assessment (as of 30 July 2026):
  1. In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to rise and remained above normal. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the warming trend in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue. The situation is forecast to develop into an El Niño event in late summer and persist at least until early next year. The event intensity is expected to reach strong to very strong, with an increasing chance of a very strong El Niño event.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of August 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to above-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for September 2026 will be available around 1st September 2026.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)