Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for January 2026

Hong Kong is expecting:

1.	near normal temperature
2.	normal to below-normal rainfall

Additional information:

Under the influence of relatively strong northeast monsoon and its replenishments, the temperature is expected to be normal to below-normal over southern China in the first half of January 2026, and the chance of having normal to above-normal temperatures over the region in the second half of the month will be higher.
With dry continental airstream persistently affecting southern China, the rainfall is expected to be normal to below-normal in the month.

Assessment (as of 30 December 2025):

In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and became colder than normal in November 2025. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, while the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will remain colder than normal for most of the time in the next couple of months, the sea surface temperatures of the region are expected to rise gradually and return to near normal in February to March 2026.
Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of January 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be near normal, and the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.

Note:

The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.
Monthly Forecast for February 2026 will be available around 1st February 2026.
Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.
Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:

For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)