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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for June 2026


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 normal to above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to above-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. It is expected that high temperatures will persistently affect southern China in June 2026, especially the first week of June.
  2. The southwest monsoon is expected to bring unsettled weather to the coast of southern China and northern part of the South China Sea in the second week of June. The chance of having normal to above-normal rainfall over the region will be higher in the month.

Assessment (as of 29 May 2026):
  1. In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to rise. Sea surface temperatures of the region became above normal in April 2026. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue. The situation is forecast to develop into an El Niño event during summer or autumn and persist at least until the end of this year or early next year, reaching moderate intensity or above, and the probability of a strong El Niño event is gradually rising.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of June 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to above-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for July 2026 will be available around 1st July 2026.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)