Weather outlook for 2024

Weather Outlook for 2024

Tse Wai-po

The Hong Kong Observatory has issued the weather outlook for 2024. El Niño has already weakened, and transitioned to the ENSO-neutral state by early summer this year. Subsequently, sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue decreasing, indicating that La Niña may start to develop in the latter half of 2024.

Taking into consideration a number of factors including the developments with El Niño/La Niña, climate model predictions and objective guidance, it is expected that the number of tropical cyclones coming within 500 kilometres of Hong Kong this year will be normal to above normal, i.e. around five to eight tropical cyclones. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong for this year is expected to be near normal. However, Hong Kong is still likely to be affected by rainstorms. Members of the public are reminded to be prepared for the rainy and tropical cyclone seasons. As the global climate continues warming, the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be above normal.

Summary of outlook for 2024